Onderzoek wijst uit dat orkanen krachter worden

Discussie over klimaat en verandering daarvan, broeikaseffect, zeespiegelstijging, etc.
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Sebastiaan
Berichten: 5638
Lid geworden op: 01-01-1978

Onderzoek wijst uit dat orkanen krachter worden

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 31-05-2020 20:17

Ik vermoed dat onderstaande tekst wel voor zichzelf spreekt.
Significance

Tropical cyclones (TCs), and particularly major TCs, pose substantial risk to many regions around the globe. Identifying changes in this risk and determining causal factors for the changes is a critical element for taking steps toward adaptation. Theory and numerical models consistently link increasing TC intensity to a warming world, but confidence in this link is compromised by difficulties in detecting significant intensity trends in observations. These difficulties are largely caused by known heterogeneities in the past instrumental records of TCs. Here we address and reduce these heterogeneities and identify significant global trends in TC intensity over the past four decades. The results should serve to increase confidence in projections of increased TC intensity under continued warming.
Abstract

Theoretical understanding of the thermodynamic controls on tropical cyclone (TC) wind intensity, as well as numerical simulations, implies a positive trend in TC intensity in a warming world. The global instrumental record of TC intensity, however, is known to be heterogeneous in both space and time and is generally unsuitable for global trend analysis. To address this, a homogenized data record based on satellite data was previously created for the period 1982–2009. The 28-y homogenized record exhibited increasing global TC intensity trends, but they were not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Based on observed trends in the thermodynamic mean state of the tropical environment during this period, however, it was argued that the 28-y period was likely close to, but shorter than, the time required for a statistically significant positive global TC intensity trend to appear. Here the homogenized global TC intensity record is extended to the 39-y period 1979–2017, and statistically significant (at the 95% confidence level) increases are identified. Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities, which is consistent with expectations based on theoretical understanding and trends identified in numerical simulations in warming scenarios. Major TCs pose, by far, the greatest threat to lives and property. Between the early and latter halves of the time period, the major TC exceedance probability increases by about 8% per decade, with a 95% CI of 2 to 15% per decade


https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020 ... 920849117

Karel
Berichten: 2448
Lid geworden op: 31-07-1978

Re: Onderzoek wijst uit dat orkanen krachter worden

Bericht door Karel » 02-06-2020 09:17

Sebastiaan:Thermodynamisch is wel duidelijk dat hogere zeewatertemperaturen en meer latente warmte meer brandstof zullen leveren.

Op de Atlantische Oceaan is dat ook te zien in de waarnemingen en de zeewatertemperatuurinvloed de afgelopen 100 jaar.
Afbeelding

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