Winter 2022
-
- Berichten: 12417
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Winter 2022
EC46 regiem aanzienlijk verbeterd qua blokkades. MJO naar fase 6,7.
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
-
- Berichten: 12417
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Winter 2022
Eleven-year solar cycle signal in the NAO and Atlantic/European blocking
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2016)
Authors:
Lesley Gray, Tim Woollings, M Andrews, J Knight
Abstract:
© 2016 The Authors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.The 11-year solar cycle signal in December–January–February (DJF) averaged mean-sea-level pressure (SLP) and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870–2010 (140 years; ∼13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3–4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660–2010 (350 years; ∼32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0–2 year lags and one via the mixed-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3–4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic/European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at ∼1-year lag that originates primarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.
----------------
Op de wintermeeting kwam deze studie nog langs.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2016)
Authors:
Lesley Gray, Tim Woollings, M Andrews, J Knight
Abstract:
© 2016 The Authors. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Royal Meteorological Society.The 11-year solar cycle signal in December–January–February (DJF) averaged mean-sea-level pressure (SLP) and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870–2010 (140 years; ∼13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3–4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660–2010 (350 years; ∼32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0–2 year lags and one via the mixed-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3–4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic/European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at ∼1-year lag that originates primarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.
----------------
Op de wintermeeting kwam deze studie nog langs.
-
- Berichten: 12417
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Winter 2022
Helaas; Een meer anti winters scenario lan ik niet bedenken !!
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
Re: Winter 2022
Ik wel: een krachtig Alpenhoog en voortdurend in subtropische lucht.
Ik ben niet meer benieuwd naar de nieuwe run van ECMWF vanavond.
Atlantisch blijft aan zet. EC wordt ook wakker.
Toch vreemd voor een vooraanstaand model dat het vaak te vlug een sneeuwdek berekend.
-
- Berichten: 12417
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Winter 2022
Wauw. Wint het model met de beste resolutie? Is EC teveel 'blokkerend', UKMO? GFS teveel zonaal of berekend juist goed de situatie op de oceaan.
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
-
- Berichten: 12417
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Winter 2022
EC is niet slecht. Zal nog wel een tijdje onzeker blijven
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
Re: Winter 2022
Testcase voor EC?
Ik ben voor dag 1 tot met 7 uit gewoonte meer gericht op uitvoer GFS.
Ik ben voor dag 1 tot met 7 uit gewoonte meer gericht op uitvoer GFS.