Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
Ontwikkelingen QBO naar QBOE langzaam:
2021 10.19 8.92 9.75
Stratosfeer Noordelijk Halfrond op weg naar zomerse oosten wind. Geen destructieve invloed extratropen op de QBO zoals in de afgelopen jaren. Dus nu op weg naar QBOE de komende winter.
2021 10.19 8.92 9.75
Stratosfeer Noordelijk Halfrond op weg naar zomerse oosten wind. Geen destructieve invloed extratropen op de QBO zoals in de afgelopen jaren. Dus nu op weg naar QBOE de komende winter.
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- Berichten: 12359
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
Even tussendoor.
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status ... 4265578496
Veel dagen MJO 7 in april 2021.
Veel dagen MJO 7 in april 2021.
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
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- Berichten: 12359
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 20RG000708
Prima overzichtsartikel over SSWs.
Prima overzichtsartikel over SSWs.
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
Dankjewel. Een paar punten die eruit springen:Sebastiaan schreef: ↑01-05-2021 08:38https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 20RG000708
Prima overzichtsartikel over SSWs.
- 1963 had dus wel een SSW, in januari.
QBO oost beduidend grotere kans op SSW dan west. QBO oost 100% SSW bij zonnemaximum.
ENSO neutraal kleinere kans op SSW. Verschil tussen La Nina en El Nino (sterk) minimaal. Alleen matige El Nino springt er positief uit.
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
Dank voor artikel Sebastiaan,Paul schreef: ↑03-05-2021 10:00Dankjewel. Een paar punten die eruit springen:Sebastiaan schreef: ↑01-05-2021 08:38https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 20RG000708
Prima overzichtsartikel over SSWs.Directe link: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 20RG000708
- 1963 had dus wel een SSW, in januari.
QBO oost beduidend grotere kans op SSW dan west. QBO oost 100% SSW bij zonnemaximum.
ENSO neutraal kleinere kans op SSW. Verschil tussen La Nina en El Nino (sterk) minimaal. Alleen matige El Nino springt er positief uit.
Nog even vergeleken met de analyse van Karin Labitzke
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
QBO daalt weer, overeenkomstig de verwachtingen. De QBO kan nu snel oostelijk worden.
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
IN de komende winter moet ook de ontwikkeling van de convectie in het tropisch gedeelte van het Atlantisch gebied in beschouwing worden genomen zeker nu ENSO neutraal wordt verwacht. Voorspelbaarheid van de convectieontwikkeling niet groot. Publicatie van de UKMO GROUP.
Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector
Anna Maidens, Jeff R Knight and Adam A Scaife
Published 2 February 2021 • © 2021 Crown copyright. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 16, Number 2
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... 326/abd8aa
Tropical and stratospheric influences on winter atmospheric circulation patterns in the North Atlantic sector
Anna Maidens, Jeff R Knight and Adam A Scaife
Published 2 February 2021 • © 2021 Crown copyright. Reproduced with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty's Stationery Office
Environmental Research Letters, Volume 16, Number 2
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... 326/abd8aa
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... 1/7/074004
Over de invloed van winterweer op de zomers.
The North Atlantic and Europe experienced two extreme climate events in 2015: exceptionally cold ocean surface temperatures and a summer heat wave ranked in the top ten over the past 65 years. Here, we show that the cold ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. Further, by considering surface heat loss, ocean heat content and wind driven upwelling we explain for the first time the genesis of this cold ocean anomaly. We find that it is primarily due to extreme ocean heat loss driven by atmospheric circulation changes in the preceding two winters combined with the re-emergence of cold ocean water masses. Furthermore, we reveal that a similar cold Atlantic anomaly was also present prior to the most extreme European heat waves since the 1980s indicating that it is a common factor in the development of these events. For the specific case of 2015, we show that the ocean anomaly is linked to a stationary position of the Jet Stream that favours the development of high surface temperatures over Central Europe during the heat wave. Our study calls for an urgent assessment of the impact of ocean drivers on major European summer temperature extremes in order to provide better advance warning measures of these high societal impact events.
Met dank aan Sebastiaan.
Over de invloed van winterweer op de zomers.
The North Atlantic and Europe experienced two extreme climate events in 2015: exceptionally cold ocean surface temperatures and a summer heat wave ranked in the top ten over the past 65 years. Here, we show that the cold ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. Further, by considering surface heat loss, ocean heat content and wind driven upwelling we explain for the first time the genesis of this cold ocean anomaly. We find that it is primarily due to extreme ocean heat loss driven by atmospheric circulation changes in the preceding two winters combined with the re-emergence of cold ocean water masses. Furthermore, we reveal that a similar cold Atlantic anomaly was also present prior to the most extreme European heat waves since the 1980s indicating that it is a common factor in the development of these events. For the specific case of 2015, we show that the ocean anomaly is linked to a stationary position of the Jet Stream that favours the development of high surface temperatures over Central Europe during the heat wave. Our study calls for an urgent assessment of the impact of ocean drivers on major European summer temperature extremes in order to provide better advance warning measures of these high societal impact events.
Met dank aan Sebastiaan.
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022
Interssant Paul, Ook een meer recente publicatie geeft een beeld van de gevolgen van warme en koude sst in specifieke gebieden van de Atlantische Oceaan op de circulatiepatronen boven West Europa in de zomer.Paul schreef: ↑20-05-2021 13:40https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1 ... 1/7/074004
Over de invloed van winterweer op de zomers.
The North Atlantic and Europe experienced two extreme climate events in 2015: exceptionally cold ocean surface temperatures and a summer heat wave ranked in the top ten over the past 65 years. Here, we show that the cold ocean temperatures were the most extreme in the modern record over much of the mid-high latitude North-East Atlantic. Further, by considering surface heat loss, ocean heat content and wind driven upwelling we explain for the first time the genesis of this cold ocean anomaly. We find that it is primarily due to extreme ocean heat loss driven by atmospheric circulation changes in the preceding two winters combined with the re-emergence of cold ocean water masses. Furthermore, we reveal that a similar cold Atlantic anomaly was also present prior to the most extreme European heat waves since the 1980s indicating that it is a common factor in the development of these events. For the specific case of 2015, we show that the ocean anomaly is linked to a stationary position of the Jet Stream that favours the development of high surface temperatures over Central Europe during the heat wave. Our study calls for an urgent assessment of the impact of ocean drivers on major European summer temperature extremes in order to provide better advance warning measures of these high societal impact events.
Met dank aan Sebastiaan.
https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wc ... 020-32.pdf
De huidige situatie geeft warme sst in het westen van de Atlantische oceaan en koude sst rond de Britse Eilanden.