Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
Zoals elk jaar weer is bij de QBO ontwikkeling een seizoensinvloed te constateren. Afwachten wat het eindresultaat deze herfst zal zijn.
In de stratosfeer en troposfeer geven de negatieve waarden de oostenwinden aan en de positieve waarden de westenwinden. In een maand tijd is het beeld compleet veranderd.
In de stratosfeer en troposfeer geven de negatieve waarden de oostenwinden aan en de positieve waarden de westenwinden. In een maand tijd is het beeld compleet veranderd.
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- Berichten: 12344
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
Karel, deze tweet kan interessant voor je zijn.
https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/sta ... 1298135042
https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/sta ... 1298135042
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
Ja Sebastiaan, tiussen 1 en 10 hPa zijn er westenwinden afdalend naar lagere hoogten. Oostenwinden tussen 10 hPa en 100 hPa. Afwachten hoe de zomerafdaling verder verloopt.
Wat betreft de zonneactiviteit zullen we de eerste zonnevlekken van de nieuwe cyclus gaan zien.
Ook komt er een (zwakke) La Niña aan de komende herfst.
Wat betreft de zonneactiviteit zullen we de eerste zonnevlekken van de nieuwe cyclus gaan zien.
Ook komt er een (zwakke) La Niña aan de komende herfst.
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- Berichten: 12344
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... Zo.twitter
The representation of upward and downward stratosphere‐troposphere coupling and its influence on the teleconnections of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) to the European sector is examined in five subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models. We show that while the models simulate a realistic stratospheric response to transient anomalies in troposphere, they overestimate the downward coupling. The models with a better stratospheric resolution capture a more realistic stratospheric response to the MJO, particularly after the first week of the integration. However, in all models examined here the connection between the MJO and vortex variability is weaker than that observed. Finally, we focus on the MJO‐SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) teleconnection and specifically initializations during the MJO phase with enhanced convection in the west/central pacific (i.e., 6 and 7) that preceded observed SSW. The integrations that simulated a SSW (as observed) can be distinguished from those that failed to simulate a SSW by the realism of the Pacific response to MJO 6/7, with only the simulations that successfully simulate a SSW capturing the North Pacific low. Furthermore, only the simulations that capture the SSW subsequently simulate a realistic surface response over the North Atlantic and Europe.
The representation of upward and downward stratosphere‐troposphere coupling and its influence on the teleconnections of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) to the European sector is examined in five subseasonal‐to‐seasonal models. We show that while the models simulate a realistic stratospheric response to transient anomalies in troposphere, they overestimate the downward coupling. The models with a better stratospheric resolution capture a more realistic stratospheric response to the MJO, particularly after the first week of the integration. However, in all models examined here the connection between the MJO and vortex variability is weaker than that observed. Finally, we focus on the MJO‐SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) teleconnection and specifically initializations during the MJO phase with enhanced convection in the west/central pacific (i.e., 6 and 7) that preceded observed SSW. The integrations that simulated a SSW (as observed) can be distinguished from those that failed to simulate a SSW by the realism of the Pacific response to MJO 6/7, with only the simulations that successfully simulate a SSW capturing the North Pacific low. Furthermore, only the simulations that capture the SSW subsequently simulate a realistic surface response over the North Atlantic and Europe.
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- Berichten: 12344
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
https://twitter.com/peacockreports/stat ... 7612981249
tweet-discussie
tweet-discussie
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
De windrichting en windsnelheden op 23 mei 2020 op 50 hPa, 30 hPa en 10 hPa MONDIAAL waargenomen. Bron :
Noaa Physical Sciences Laboratory
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/
Noaa Physical Sciences Laboratory
https://psl.noaa.gov/data/composites/day/
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- Berichten: 12344
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
Karel, dit onderzoek heeft wellicht je interesse.
http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/89964/21/L ... -Julia.pdf
AbstractSkillful weather forecasting on sub-seasonal timescales is important to enable users to make cost-effective decisions.Forecast skill can be expected to be mediated by the prediction of atmospheric flow patterns, often known as weatherregimes, over the relevant region. Here, we show how theGrosswetterlagen (GWL), a set of 29 European weatherregimes, can be modulated by the extra-tropical teleconnection from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Together,these GWL regimes represent the large-scale flow characteristics observed in the four North Atlantic-European classicalweather regimes (NAE-CWRs), while individually capturingsynoptic scale flow details. By matching each GWL regimeto the nearest NAE-CWR, we reveal GWL regimes which occur during the transition stages between the NAE-CWRsand show the importance of capturing the added synoptic detail of GWL regimes when determining their teleconnectionpattern from the MJO. The occurrence probabilities of certain GWL regimes are significantly changed 10–15 days aftercertain MJO phases, exhibiting teleconnection patterns similar to their NAE-CWR matches but often with larger occur-rence anomalies, over fewer consecutive MJO phases. These changes in occurrence probabilities are likely related toMJO-induced changes in the persistence and transition probabilities. Other GWL regimes are not significantly influencedby the MJO. These findings demonstrate how the MJO can modify the preferred evolution of the NAE atmospheric flow,which is important for sub-seasonal weather forecasting.
http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/89964/21/L ... -Julia.pdf
AbstractSkillful weather forecasting on sub-seasonal timescales is important to enable users to make cost-effective decisions.Forecast skill can be expected to be mediated by the prediction of atmospheric flow patterns, often known as weatherregimes, over the relevant region. Here, we show how theGrosswetterlagen (GWL), a set of 29 European weatherregimes, can be modulated by the extra-tropical teleconnection from the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Together,these GWL regimes represent the large-scale flow characteristics observed in the four North Atlantic-European classicalweather regimes (NAE-CWRs), while individually capturingsynoptic scale flow details. By matching each GWL regimeto the nearest NAE-CWR, we reveal GWL regimes which occur during the transition stages between the NAE-CWRsand show the importance of capturing the added synoptic detail of GWL regimes when determining their teleconnectionpattern from the MJO. The occurrence probabilities of certain GWL regimes are significantly changed 10–15 days aftercertain MJO phases, exhibiting teleconnection patterns similar to their NAE-CWR matches but often with larger occur-rence anomalies, over fewer consecutive MJO phases. These changes in occurrence probabilities are likely related toMJO-induced changes in the persistence and transition probabilities. Other GWL regimes are not significantly influencedby the MJO. These findings demonstrate how the MJO can modify the preferred evolution of the NAE atmospheric flow,which is important for sub-seasonal weather forecasting.
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
Sebastiaan, interessante analyse van de links tussen de Madden-Julian Oscillation en de Europese circulatietypen (29). De periode 01/01/1979 tot 31/05/2018 is bij de analyse betrokken. https://static-content.springer.com/esm ... 1_ESM.docx en https://static-content.springer.com/esm ... M2_ESM.txt
Zijdelings komen ook opmerkingen over ENSO en SSW en invloed op MJO effecten op Europa in de conclusies. Hierover handelt een andere publicatie van deze onderzoeksgroep: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084683
Lee RW, Woolnough SJ, Charlton-Perez AJ, Vitart F (2019) ENSO modulation of MJO teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe.
Geophys Res Lett 46(22):13535–13545.
Het is duidelijk dat het in de praktijk gebruik maken hiervan specialistenwerk is. (kansberekening)
Zijdelings komen ook opmerkingen over ENSO en SSW en invloed op MJO effecten op Europa in de conclusies. Hierover handelt een andere publicatie van deze onderzoeksgroep: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084683
Lee RW, Woolnough SJ, Charlton-Perez AJ, Vitart F (2019) ENSO modulation of MJO teleconnections to the North Atlantic and Europe.
Geophys Res Lett 46(22):13535–13545.
Het is duidelijk dat het in de praktijk gebruik maken hiervan specialistenwerk is. (kansberekening)
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- Berichten: 12344
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
Here we find a robust dependence of the teleconnections from the MJO to NAE weather regimes on the phase of ENSO. We show that the MJO to NAO+ regime tropospheric teleconnection is strongly enhanced during El Niño years, via enhanced Rossby wave activity, and suppressed during La Niña. Conversely, the MJO to NAO− regime stratospheric teleconnection is enhanced during La Niña years and suppressed during El Niño. This dependence on the background state has strong implications for subseasonal predictability, including interannual variations in subseasonal predictive skill.
La Nina winter krijgen we wellicht. Dat zou via de MJO een SSW kunnen opleveren.
La Nina winter krijgen we wellicht. Dat zou via de MJO een SSW kunnen opleveren.
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- Berichten: 12344
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2020/2021
-2.51 -3.20 -4.36 -5.03 -4.86
Waarvan de laatste waarde van mei is.
Waarvan de laatste waarde van mei is.