Influence of solar variability on the occurrence of central European weather types from 1763 to 2009

[Sebastiaan]

http://www.clim-past.net/13/1199/2017/cp-13-1199-2017.pdf
Abstract
The impact of solar variability on weather and climate in central Europe is still not well understood. In this paper we use a new time series of daily weather types to analyse the influence of the 11-year solar cycle on the tropospheric weather of central Europe. We employ a novel, daily weather type classification over the period 1763–2009 and investigate the occurrence frequency of weather types under low, moderate, and high solar activity level. Results show a tendency towards fewer days with westerly and west-southwesterly flow over central Europe under low solar activity. In parallel, the occurrence of northerly and easterly types increases. For the 1958–2009 period, a more detailed view can be gained from reanalysis data. Mean sea level pressure composites under low solar activity also show a reduced zonal flow, with an increase of the mean blocking frequency between Iceland and Scandinavia. Weather types and reanalysis data show that the 11-year solar cycle influences the late winter atmospheric circulation over central Europe with colder (warmer) conditionsunder low (high) solar activity.

-> Kans op kouder weer groter in de tweede helft van de winter tijdens lage zonneactiviteit.

[Karel]

Wat in eerder onderzoek niet luktehttp://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024014/pdf is bij de classificatiemethode - die de stromingspatronen vooropstelt - over een recente periode met voldoende informatie wel gelukt. De mate van kouder en warmer hangt van meer factoren af.