Nieuwe studie. Kans op recordhoeveelheid regen 7% wintermaand ZO Engeland.

Discussie over klimaat en verandering daarvan, broeikaseffect, zeespiegelstijging, etc.
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Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12243
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Nieuwe studie. Kans op recordhoeveelheid regen 7% wintermaand ZO Engeland.

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 30-07-2017 10:55

De winter van 2014 was in Engeland zeer nat. Nieuw onderzoek laat zien dat de kans dat het record in een willekeurige wintermaand verbroken wordt in het zuidoosten van het VK 7% is.

In winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK leading to record rainfall and flooding in many regions including south east England. In the Thames river valley there was widespread flooding, with clean-up costs of over £1 billion. There was no observational precedent for this level of rainfall. Here we present analysis of a large ensemble of high-resolution initialised climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated, and that in the current climate there remains a high chance of exceeding the observed record monthly rainfall totals in many regions of the UK. In south east England there is a 7% chance of exceeding the current rainfall record in at least one month in any given winter. Expanding our analysis to some other regions of England and Wales the risk increases to a 34% chance of breaking a regional record somewhere each winter.

http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00275-3
Laatst gewijzigd door Sebastiaan op 02-08-2017 15:20, 1 keer totaal gewijzigd.

Gerben
Berichten: 16631
Lid geworden op: 08-09-2013

Re: Nieuwe studie. Kans op recordhoeveelheid regen 7% wintermaand ZO Engeland.

Bericht door Gerben » 30-07-2017 11:57

Sebastiaan schreef:De winter van 2014 was in Engeland zeer nat. Nieuw onderzoek laat zien dat de kans dat het record in een willekeurige wintermaand verbroken wordt in het zuidoosten van het VK 7% is.

In winter 2013/14 a succession of storms hit the UK leading to record rainfall and flooding in many regions including south east England. In the Thames river valley there was widespread flooding, with clean-up costs of over £1 billion. There was no observational precedent for this level of rainfall. Here we present analysis of a large ensemble of high-resolution initialised climate simulations to show that this event could have been anticipated, and that in the current climate there remains a high chance of exceeding the observed record monthly rainfall totals in many regions of the UK. In south east England there is a 7% chance of exceeding the current rainfall record in at least one month in any given winter. Expanding our analysis to some other regions of England and Wales the risk increases to a 34% chance of breaking a regional record somewhere each winter.

http://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-00275-3


Niet best voor onze winters

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