Een recente voorpublicatie van Lorenzo M. Polvani en Karen L. Smith vindt met een viertal CMIP5 modellen dat deze ontwikkeling ruim binnen de marge van natuurlijke variaties valt.
Can natural variability explain observed Antarctic sea ice trends? New modeling evidence from CMIP5 http://www.columbia.edu/~lmp/paps/polvani+smith-GRL-2013-submitted.pdf
"Abstract
The observed positive trends in Antarctic sea ice extent, in the last three decades, runs counter to simple expectations of melting sea ice as a consequence of global warming. More problematic yet, a variety of modeling studies clearly indicate that sea ice should decrease around Antarctica in response to both increasing greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone depletion. The resolution of this puzzle, we suggest, may lie in the large natural variability of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice system. Contrasting forced and control integrations from four state-of-the-art models, we show that the observed Antarctic sea ice trend falls well within the distribution of trends arising naturally in the control integrations; we also find that the forced response in the models is small compared to the natural variability. From these facts,
we conclude that the observed Antarctic sea ice trend may reflect natural variability more than anthropogenic forcings."
