Winter vs Zonnevlekken op Kennislink, Geophysical Research L

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Met plezier het 'corrigerende' artikel gelezen. Ik vraag me af of de oude datareeksen wel kloppen.

However, the connection between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and solar activity is known not to exist in longer records of equivalent surface observations, such as instrumental or analysis-based sea-level pressure series (see section 4, already noted in Rodwell ( 2003)) and independent observations such as the CET and Dutch temperature reconstructions (beyond common upward trends). This leaves the two possibilities that the connection in recent decades was a chance fluctuation or the result of a change in the physical behaviour of some aspect of the climate system that switched on a coupling or allowed it to become apparent. The difference cannot be determined by statistical analyses alone: proper physical understanding is needed. Ineson et al( 2011) showed model evidence for a solar-induced signal in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere caused by UV radiation variations during the latest solar cycle changing the ozone concentration and hence temperature in the upper stratosphere (see also Keckhut et al( 2005 ), Haigh et al (2005)). The solar signal is visible in long upper air reconstructions (Bronnimann et al 2007). However,on long timescales this signal is much weaker at ground level and not a major factor in determining severe winters. In fact we find it undetectable against the weather noise in long detrended time series (e.g., figure 4 (b)).