The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the United Kingdom

Alles wat betrekking heeft op het buitenlands weer. Tropische stormen, orkanen, etc.
Plaats reactie
Sebastiaan
Berichten: 9232
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

The increasing likelihood of temperatures above 30 to 40 °C in the United Kingdom

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 16-06-2022 11:45

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16834-0

As European heatwaves become more severe, summers in the United Kingdom (UK) are also getting warmer. The UK record temperature of 38.7 °C set in Cambridge in July 2019 prompts the question of whether exceeding 40 °C is now within reach. Here, we show how human influence is increasing the likelihood of exceeding 30, 35 and 40 °C locally. We utilise observations to relate local to UK mean extremes and apply the resulting relationships to climate model data in a risk-based attribution methodology. We find that temperatures above 35 °C are becoming increasingly common in the southeast, while by 2100 many areas in the north are likely to exceed 30 °C at least once per decade. Summers which see days above 40 °C somewhere in the UK have a return time of 100-300 years at present, but, without mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, this can decrease to 3.5 years by 2100.

Plaats reactie