Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Alles wat betrekking heeft op het buitenlands weer. Tropische stormen, orkanen, etc.
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Karel
Berichten: 3189
Lid geworden op: 31-07-1978

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Karel » 09-08-2021 12:13

Sebastiaan schreef:
08-08-2021 12:09
https://twitter.com/JimSullivan92/statu ... 0586555399
The cooling beneath the surface across the equatorial Pacific has been impressive over the last 5 weeks...it's now cooler beneath the surface than last year at this time. With a +SOI favored for the foreseeable future, another La Nina winter seems increasingly likely.
Wat betreft de kans op een SSW in dec/jan is dit onderzoek van belang.
Equal frequency of stratospheric sudden warmings in El Nino and La Nina winters.
Amy H. Butler ,Chaim Garfinkel, Darryn Waugh, Lorenzo
Polvani, and Margaret Hurwitz.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... Butler.pdf

In vergelijking met de afgelopen winter 2020/2021 is het verschil in de komende winter 2021/2022 niet QBOW maar QBOE.

Wat dit verschil in het verleden heeft betekend is onderzocht met behulp van:" Zonal wind and precipitation fields for the period 1958–2016 are from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF)." . https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/18/8227/2018/
Abstract

"Teleconnections between the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Northern Hemisphere zonally averaged zonal winds, mean sea level pressure (mslp) and tropical precipitation are explored. The standard approach that defines the QBO using the equatorial zonal winds at a single pressure level is compared with the empirical orthogonal function approach that characterizes the vertical profile of the equatorial winds. Results are interpreted in terms of three potential routes of influence, referred to as the tropical, subtropical and polar routes. A novel technique is introduced to separate responses via the polar route that are associated with the stratospheric polar vortex, from the other two routes. A previously reported mslp response in January, with a pattern that resembles the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation under QBO westerly conditions, is confirmed and found to be primarily associated with a QBO modulation of the stratospheric polar vortex. This mid-winter response is relatively insensitive to the exact height of the maximum QBO westerlies and a maximum positive response occurs with westerlies over a relatively deep range between 10 and 70 hPa. Two additional mslp responses are reported, in early winter (December) and late winter (February/March). In contrast to the January response the early and late winter responses show maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at ∼ 20 and ∼ 70 hPa respectively, but are relatively insensitive to the QBO winds in between (∼ 50 hPa). The late winter response is centred over the North Pacific and is associated with QBO influence from the lowermost stratosphere at tropical/subtropical latitudes in the Pacific sector. The early winter response consists of anomalies over both the North Pacific and Europe, but the mechanism for this response is unclear. Increased precipitation occurs over the tropical western Pacific under westerly QBO conditions, particularly during boreal summer, with maximum sensitivity to the QBO winds at 70 hPa. The band of precipitation across the Pacific associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts southward under QBO westerly conditions. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF)-based analysis suggests that this ITCZ precipitation response may be particularly sensitive to the vertical wind shear in the vicinity of 70 hPa and hence the tropical tropopause temperatures."

In de loop van november zal meer duidelijk worden hoe sterk de La Nina wordt en wat de stand is van de QBOE.

Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 11-08-2021 22:08

Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.

Karel
Berichten: 3189
Lid geworden op: 31-07-1978

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Karel » 14-08-2021 10:11

Op 10 hPa geeft ECMWF ensemble van 1 aug 2021 een enigszins verzwakte weststromimg met flinke spreiding de komende winter.

Afbeelding

Karel
Berichten: 3189
Lid geworden op: 31-07-1978

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Karel » 14-08-2021 10:28

Wat betreft luchtdruk en temperatuur ensemble afwijkingen van gemiddelde van drie maanden nov/dec/jan door ECMWF op 1 aug 2021.
Bron:https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3 ... rea=area08
De drie maanden verschillen erg in luchtdrukbeeld. In november AO +. In december een sterke AO - situatie. In januari 2021 overgang naar AO ++ Bron:https://weathermodels.com

Afbeelding

Afbeelding

Afbeelding

Afbeelding

Daniël
Berichten: 1480
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1999

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Daniël » 14-08-2021 18:43

Karel schreef:
14-08-2021 10:28
Wat betreft luchtdruk en temperatuur ensemble afwijkingen van gemiddelde van drie maanden nov/dec/jan door ECMWF op 1 aug 2021.
Bron:https://climate.copernicus.eu/charts/c3 ... rea=area08
De drie maanden verschillen erg in luchtdrukbeeld. In november AO +. In december een sterke AO - situatie. In januari 2021 overgang naar AO ++ Bron:https://weathermodels.com
Een koudere winter in Europa kan problemen opleveren met de leveringszekerheid van aardgas, zie op FD "Toenemende zorgen over gastoevoer naar Nederland". Oorzaak daarvan zijn de lage gasvoorraden in Europa op dit moment.

Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 16-08-2021 10:03

Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.

Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 16-08-2021 11:02

Overzicht.
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.


Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 24-08-2021 21:54

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com ... phere.html

It should be obvious through reading past blogs here at Eastern Mass Weather that within the context of seasonal forecasting, the tropics are kind of a big deal. This is quite simply because the equatorial region is where the vast majority of the earth's solar energy is both absorbed and distributed throughout the globe. The implication of this is that the global weather pattern is often determined by what goes on here both at the surface and aloft, and thus any anomaly has an exponentially profound ripple effect spanning the entirety of the planet. Given that the tropical Pacific encompasses so much of the tropics, the conversation usually begins with ENSO.

Weak La Nina increasingly Likely
The updated May-June-July figure has been reported as -0.4C. Climatologically speaking, it appears fairly likely, although not a certainty, that a weak la nina peak will be our fate in advance of boreal winter 2021-2022. Since 1950, there are only two years that registered a -0.4C or cooler MJJ ONI and went onto peak as a moderate or stronger la nina ONI. They are 1970 (-0.3C MJJ ONI) and 1998 (0.1C MJJ ONI). Thus it continues to be climatologically unlikely that this event will reach a moderate or strong designation. Conversely, there have been two seasons registered a MMJ ONI value of -0.4C, and failed to pgo on to be classified as an official la nina event. They are 1989 (-0.4C MMJ ONI) and 2013 (-0.4C MJJ ONI), which means that, while still possible, it is climatologically unlikely that an official la nina will not be registered this season. Guidance remains in sync with climo. Models from the month of August at the Climate Prediction Center have become much more tightly clustered on a weak la nina peak for the coming winter.

Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 02-09-2021 22:38

-13.17 augustus QBO

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