Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Alles wat betrekking heeft op het buitenlands weer. Tropische stormen, orkanen, etc.
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Karel
Berichten: 3189
Lid geworden op: 31-07-1978

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Karel » 03-09-2021 08:13

Sebastiaan schreef:
02-09-2021 22:38
-13.17 augustus QBO
Enorm verschil tussen 30 hPa ca -20 nu (oostenwind) en 50 hPa niveau ca +5 (westenwind)
Afbeelding


Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 04-09-2021 14:41

New
@CopernicusECMWF
products released to our seasonal portal today - including QBO (30mb) forecasts. Interesting differences even after bias correction, and relatively poor skill from JMA and CMCC. (No 30mb data from NCEP/CFSv2 and one of the ECCC models) https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc/sta ... 9305933826

Kijk eens naar de extreme waarden van de QBO
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Karel
Berichten: 3189
Lid geworden op: 31-07-1978

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Karel » 06-09-2021 20:12

Winter 2005/2006 meest recente La Nina en QBOE analoog.

Karel
Berichten: 3189
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Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Karel » 12-09-2021 09:01

Karel schreef:
06-09-2021 20:12
Winter 2005/2006 meest recente La Nina en QBOE analoog.
Het zal ook van de sterkte en de timing van MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) afhangen hoe de komende winter in de loop van januari zal gaan verlopen.
Zie hiervoor: Disruptions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnections by the Madden–Julian Oscillation
Andrew Hoell, Mathew Barlow, Matthew C. Wheeler, Chris Funk
First published: 16 January 2014https://scholar.google.com/scholar?outp ... 584&oi=lle

"Abstract The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with
global impacts on weather and climate that have seasonal predictability. Research on the link between
interannual ENSO variability and the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation
(MJO), has focused mainly on the role of MJO initiating or terminating ENSO. We use observational analysis
and modeling to show that the MJO has an important simultaneous link to ENSO: strong MJO activity
significantly weakens the atmospheric branch of ENSO. For weak MJO conditions relative to strong MJO
conditions, the average magnitude of ENSO-associated tropical precipitation anomalies increases by 63%,
and the strength of hemispheric teleconnections increases by 58%. Since the MJO has predictability beyond
three weeks, the relationships shown here suggest that there may be subseasonal predictability of the ENSO
teleconnections to continental circulation and precipitation."

Afbeelding

Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
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Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 17-09-2021 10:51

Winter 2021-22: the chance for a weaker than normal stratospheric polar vortex has been well-chronicled by climate models Rode cirkel

As the season gets closer & the signal persists, it's looking more likely.

Early winter high-latitude blocking could dislodge Arctic air southward... https://twitter.com/bennollweather

Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 17-09-2021 10:52

&

December 2021: two top climate models, the ECMWF and UKMET, favor higher heights across higher latitudes.

Both happen to hang a trough over the eastern U.S. 🌨

It’s still too early for finer details, but it would appear a troposphere-stratosphere connection is *possible*.

Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 17-09-2021 10:53

EC en UKMO voor december.
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Sebastiaan
Berichten: 12244
Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977

Re: Ontwikkeling van de QBO, zonneactiviteit, ENSO, MJO en de winter 2021-2022

Bericht door Sebastiaan » 17-09-2021 13:46

https://wcd.copernicus.org/preprints/wcd-2021-58/

Abstract. The simulated Northern Hemisphere stationary wave (SW) field is investigated in 11 subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models. It is shown that while most models considered can well-simulate the stationary wavenumbers 1 and 2 during the first two weeks of integration, they diverge from observations following week 3. Those models with a poor resolution in the stratosphere struggle to simulate the waves, both in the troposphere and the stratosphere, even during the first two weeks, and biases extend from the troposphere all the way up to the stratosphere. Focusing on the tropospheric regions where SWs peak in amplitude reveals that the models generally do a better job in simulating the Northwest Pacific stationary trough, while certain models struggle to simulate the stationary ridges both in Western North America and the North Atlantic. In addition, a strong relationship is found between regional biases in the stationary height field and model errors in simulated upward propagation of planetary waves into the stratosphere. In the stratosphere, biases mostly are in wave-2 in those models with high stratospheric resolution, whereas in those models with low resolution in the stratosphere, a wave-1 bias is evident, which leads to a strong bias in the stratospheric mean zonal circulation due to the predominance of wave-1 there. Finally, biases in both amplitude and location of mean tropical convection and the subsequent subtropical downwelling, are identified as possible contributors to biases in the regional SW field in the troposphere.

How to cite. Schwartz, C., Garfinkel, C. I., Yadav, P., Chen, W., and Domeisen, D.: Stationary Waves and Upward Troposphere-Stratosphere Coupling in S2S Models, Weather Clim. Dynam. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2021-58, in review, 2021.

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