Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Alles wat betrekking heeft op het buitenlands weer. Tropische stormen, orkanen, etc.
Daniël
Berichten: 865
Lid geworden op: 01-01-2000

Re: Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Bericht door Daniël » 01-09-2019 16:53

Je ziet altijd dat de updrafts van de eyewallbuien aan de holle kant van de eyewall zitten. En aan welke kant zitten de updrafts van de buien die deel uitmaken van de spiraalbanden, aan de voorzijde (zoals bij een gewone buienlijn), of aan de achterkant?

Frank
Berichten: 17
Lid geworden op: 01-01-1974

Re: Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Bericht door Frank » 02-09-2019 06:02

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE
EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from
the Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's
River.

A Storm Surge Watch has also been extended northward from the
Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or
warnings may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 77.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slower westward to
west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so,
followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the
core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound
Great Abaco and Grand Bahama islands overnight and through much of
Monday. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida
east coast late Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations
in intensity could occur couple of days. Regardless, Dorian is
expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 914 mb (26.99 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue in the Abacos
and Grand Bahama Islands. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds
will suddenly increase as the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Monday or Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday and Tuesday and are possible in the tropical
storm watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to
6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Gert
Berichten: 1425
Lid geworden op: 01-01-1993

Re: Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Bericht door Gert » 02-09-2019 06:50

Hieronder een link die regelmatig updates geeft over de impact van Dorian

https://weather.com/news/news/2019-09-0 ... ts-bahamas

Frank
Berichten: 17
Lid geworden op: 01-01-1974

Re: Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Bericht door Frank » 02-09-2019 10:45

Vanochtend heb ik een nieuwe afspeellijst betreffende Dorian in mijn YouTube-kanaal samengesteld en geupload.
Daarnaast heb ik (ter vergelijking) de afspeellijst betreffende Irma van twee jaar geleden op 'openbaar' gezet.
Zodra er nieuwe relevante video's beschikbaar komen, zal ik ze in de Dorian-afspeellijst plaatsen.
Hieronder de link naar mijn YouTube-kanaal en de twee afspeellijsten:

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC2P03H ... subscriber

Daniël
Berichten: 865
Lid geworden op: 01-01-2000

Re: Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Bericht door Daniël » 02-09-2019 12:27

Marineschepen.nl: "Zr.Ms. Johan de Witt in Atlantische Oceaan, onderweg naar door orkaan Dorian getroffen Bahama's?".

Zr.Ms. Johan de Witt is een amfibisch transportschip van de Koninklijke Marine.

Frank
Berichten: 17
Lid geworden op: 01-01-1974

Re: Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Bericht door Frank » 02-09-2019 17:04

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC WINDS
AND STORM SURGE AS DORIAN INCHES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 78.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward along the
east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the Georgia
coast to the Savannah River.

The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been
extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound
Georgia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
* Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional
watches may be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.3 West. Dorian is
moving very slowly toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next
day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and
north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of
today and tonight. The hurricane will then move dangerously close
to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and
then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
on Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is
forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area by tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana to the Savannah River...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of
Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas
and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the
southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into
tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Frank
Berichten: 17
Lid geworden op: 01-01-1974

Re: Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Bericht door Frank » 02-09-2019 22:02

Daniël, ik ben bang dat hulp van de Nederlandse marine of van welke andere hulpverleners dan ook, momenteel (maandagavond 22.00 uur in NL) nog volkomen onmogelijk is op Grand Bahama Island, omdat Dorian daar nog steeds (nu al bijna 24 uur lang) alle activiteit totaal onmogelijk maakt.
Het moet voor de mensen die nu op Grand Bahama Island louter aan het overleven zijn, een complete nachtmerrie zijn.
Frank.

Frank
Berichten: 17
Lid geworden op: 01-01-1974

Re: Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Bericht door Frank » 03-09-2019 06:02

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 39...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Correction to the storm surge watch area

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE DORIAN IS STILL STATIONARY AND
CONTINUES TO PUMMEL GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 78.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...55 KM NNE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward from Altamaha
Sound, GA to the Savannah River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Lantana FL to Savannah River

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to south of Lantana FL
* Savannah River to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to South Santee River SC

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach FL to Deerfield Beach FL
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches may be required tonight and Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 78.5 West. Dorian is stationary
just north of Grand Bahama Island. A slow northwestward motion is
expected to occur early Tuesday. A turn toward the north is
forecast by late Tuesday, with a northeastward motion forecast to
begin by Wednesday night. On this track, the core of extremely
dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama
Island into Tuesday morning. The hurricane will then move
dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Tuesday through
Wednesday evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts
Wednesday night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina
coast late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km). Settlement Point Grand Bahama recently reported a
sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) with a gust to 82 mph (132 km/h),
and Juno Beach Pier in northern Palm Beach County Florida recently
reported a sustained wind of 44 mph (70 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph
(91 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunters was 946 mb (27.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Devastating hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama
Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly
increase after the eye passes.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area beginning Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm
warning area through Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical
Storm watch area through early Tuesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands on Tuesday.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Lantana FL to South Santee River SC...4 to 7 ft
North of Deerfield Beach FL to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm
totals of 30 inches.
Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8
inches, isolated 10 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Frank
Berichten: 17
Lid geworden op: 01-01-1974

Re: Hurricane seizoen Atlantische Oceaan 2019

Bericht door Frank » 03-09-2019 17:05

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...DORIAN FINALLY MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GROWING IN SIZE...
...DANGEROUS WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ON
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 78.6W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM N OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF FORT PIERCE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to South Santee
River, South Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Cape Lookout,
North Carolina.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the coast of South Carolina
from north of Edisto Beach to the South Santee River.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from north of South Santee River
to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been extended north to Edisto Beach,
South Carolina.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter
Inlet, Florida.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Lantana,
Florida has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Watch from Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch from Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet FL to South Santee River SC

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River SC to Cape Lookout NC

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas
* Jupiter Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL
* North of Edisto Beach SC to South Santee River SC

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC
* North of South Santee River SC to Duck NC
* Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach FL to Jupiter Inlet FL
* North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Edisto Beach SC

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lake Okeechobee

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts of
the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian,
as additional watches or warnings may be required today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 78.6 West. Dorian is
moving toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h), and a slightly
faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected
later today and tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by
Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast
Thursday morning. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous
Hurricane Dorian will gradually move north of Grand Bahama Island
through this evening. The hurricane will then move dangerously
close to the Florida east coast late today through Wednesday
evening, very near the Georgia and South Carolina coasts Wednesday
night and Thursday, and near or over the North Carolina coast late
Thursday and Thursday night.

Data from reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts.
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
couple of days.

Data from aircraft and buoys indicate that the hurricane is growing
in size. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95
km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles (280 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from Air Force
Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions will continue on
Grand Bahama Island through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
in Florida by this evening. Hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area as early as Wednesday and could spread
northward within the watch through Thursday.

In South Florida, tropical storm conditions are expected within the
Tropical Storm Warning area through today. Along the coast of
northeastern Florida and Georgia, tropical storm conditions are
expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Wednesday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels
should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands today.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Flagler/Volusia County Line FL to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft
Jupiter Inlet FL to the Flagler/Volusia County Line FL...3 to 5 ft

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of
strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close
the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Friday:

Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm
totals over 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach
through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches.
Southeast Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells are affecting the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida east coast, and the coast of Georgia. These swells are
expected to spread northward along much of the remainder of the
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east
coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along
the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday
into Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

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