Inderdaad typisch een El Nino winter. De richting van de straalstroom op de Oostelijke Atlantische Oceaan met de interactie met stratosfeer gaat het karakter van de winter verder bepalen. Dat is pas begin januari in beeld.Sebastiaan schreef: ↑06-09-2023 10:16EC toont positieve NAO voor december, negatief voor januari en februari.
El Nino topic
Re: El Nino topic
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Sebastiaan
- Berichten: 12295
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: El Nino topic
Significant +IOD events seem to occur most often with EP El Nino's or sometimes non modoki CP El Nino's on occasions.
2019/20 seems to be a big outlier considering ENSO was neutral in that season.
There is a difference between EP, CP and modoki El Nino's and a lot of us assume all CP events are modoki as well.
Modoki events are measured on the difference of the anomalies between Nino 4 and 1+2 whilst EP and CP is the difference between Nino 4 and Nino 3.
Therefore we have several El Nino types:
Standard EP El Nino (Nino 3 and 1+2 warmest anomalies)
Modoki EP El Nino (Nino 3 warmer than Nino 4 but Nino 1+2 cooler than Nino 4)
Standard CP El Nino (Nino 4 and 3.4 warmest anomalies but 1+2 not much cooler)
Modoki CP El Nino (Nino 4 and 3.4 warmest anomalies. Warmer than Nino 3 and much warmer than Nino 1+2)
Basin wide El Nino (All 4 Nino regions close to the same anomaly)
Standard EP El Nino's have greatest chance of significant +IOD events with modoki CP El Nino's the least. 1997 is a great example of a Super EP El Nino combined with significant +IOD. 2009 is also El Nino but a modoki CP event and barely registers anywhere on the IOD, just above neutral but not enough to be defined as a +IOD event. https://community.netweather.tv/topic/9 ... nt=4923467
2019/20 seems to be a big outlier considering ENSO was neutral in that season.
There is a difference between EP, CP and modoki El Nino's and a lot of us assume all CP events are modoki as well.
Modoki events are measured on the difference of the anomalies between Nino 4 and 1+2 whilst EP and CP is the difference between Nino 4 and Nino 3.
Therefore we have several El Nino types:
Standard EP El Nino (Nino 3 and 1+2 warmest anomalies)
Modoki EP El Nino (Nino 3 warmer than Nino 4 but Nino 1+2 cooler than Nino 4)
Standard CP El Nino (Nino 4 and 3.4 warmest anomalies but 1+2 not much cooler)
Modoki CP El Nino (Nino 4 and 3.4 warmest anomalies. Warmer than Nino 3 and much warmer than Nino 1+2)
Basin wide El Nino (All 4 Nino regions close to the same anomaly)
Standard EP El Nino's have greatest chance of significant +IOD events with modoki CP El Nino's the least. 1997 is a great example of a Super EP El Nino combined with significant +IOD. 2009 is also El Nino but a modoki CP event and barely registers anywhere on the IOD, just above neutral but not enough to be defined as a +IOD event. https://community.netweather.tv/topic/9 ... nt=4923467
Re: El Nino topic
Sebastiaan schreef: ↑08-05-2023 16:14EC gemiddelde komt in de mei berekeningen rond de 2c uit. Een erg forse El Nino dus.
Tweet van World Climate Service. https://twitter.com/WorldClimateSvc
April SST data shows the emerging El Niño signal near Peru. At the same time, the PDO index of -1.9 is the lowest for any spring month since 1956. This contrast is very striking and unusual.
In the Atlantic, SSTs to the W of Morocco are record warm and 3-4+ std devs above normal
Gelukkig zijn er deze winter nog veel oostenwinden in de tropische atmosfeer.
