Een niveau van belang in de DSW (Deep Stratosphric Warmings) en SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warmings) benadering volgens het KNMI rapport van L van Galen.
Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
Van belang is het niveau waarop E en W zich in de stratosfeer manifesteert. Tussen 50 en 100 hPa is de stroming nog steeds in de East fase.
Een niveau van belang in de DSW (Deep Stratosphric Warmings) en SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warmings) benadering volgens het KNMI rapport van L van Galen.
Een niveau van belang in de DSW (Deep Stratosphric Warmings) en SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warmings) benadering volgens het KNMI rapport van L van Galen.
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Sebastiaan
- Berichten: 12285
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
We keren terug op een niveau rond de normaal.
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Sebastiaan
- Berichten: 12285
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/8 ... nt=3917922
Mooie bijdrage van Stewart. Hij wijst op ontwikkelingen in de en troposfeer de komende weken en stratosfeer in december.
Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December.
A strong convectively coupled tropical wave is being forecast to develop in the Indian Ocean in the next week and migrate eastwards during week 2 (MJO phase 2-3-4-5 transition).
We are likely to see jet extension and subsequent retraction of the Asian and Pacific Jets leading to a increase in tendency in relative angular momentum and the GWO spiking phases 4 and 5. Mountain torque territiory for the Himalayas.
At the same time, long wave pattern over eastern Europe maintains a favourable Wave 2 projection. This is likely to be enhanced over time as the amplification resulting from retraction of the Pacific Jet works its way downstream.
Mooie bijdrage van Stewart. Hij wijst op ontwikkelingen in de en troposfeer de komende weken en stratosfeer in december.
Some useful tropospheric developments upcoming which are likely to have stratospheric impacts towards the end of November and more particularly into December.
A strong convectively coupled tropical wave is being forecast to develop in the Indian Ocean in the next week and migrate eastwards during week 2 (MJO phase 2-3-4-5 transition).
We are likely to see jet extension and subsequent retraction of the Asian and Pacific Jets leading to a increase in tendency in relative angular momentum and the GWO spiking phases 4 and 5. Mountain torque territiory for the Himalayas.
At the same time, long wave pattern over eastern Europe maintains a favourable Wave 2 projection. This is likely to be enhanced over time as the amplification resulting from retraction of the Pacific Jet works its way downstream.
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Sebastiaan
- Berichten: 12285
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
Abstract:
The impact of mountains on stratospheric circulation is explored using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. The “Mongolian mountains” decrease the boreal winter stratospheric jet strength by ∼1/3 and increase the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings from 0.08 year−1 to the observed 0.60 year−1. These changes are twice the magnitude of the impacts of the Tibetan plateau and Himalayas. Consistent with the decrease in the zonal jet, there is enhanced Eliassen‐Palm flux convergence; this is predominantly from changes in wave propagation pathways through changes to the upper troposphere circulation, not from an increased amplitude of planetary waves reaching the stratosphere. The Mongolian mountains have the greater impact on upper tropospheric circulation due to their meridional location. The Rocky Mountains have no significant impact on the stratospheric jet. Changes in wave propagation in response to the Mongolian mountains are similar to those associated with major sudden stratospheric warming events in observations.
Plain Language Summary
The stratosphere is a layer of the atmosphere far from the Earth's surface (10–50 km above the surface), but changes in stratospheric circulation, particularly events known as sudden stratospheric warmings, affect the weather and climate at the surface. By flattening individual mountain regions in a climate model that extends from the Earth's surface far past the stratosphere, we study the effects of mountains on stratospheric circulation and the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events. We find that the presence of the Mongolian mountains weakens the stratospheric jet by a third of its strength and creates 6 times more warming events as there would be without these mountains. The impact of the Mongolian mountains is about twice as large as the impact of the larger and more expansive Tibetan plateau and Himalaya. Mountains are a source of planetary‐scale atmospheric waves that propagate upward into the stratosphere; we find that the mountain effect on the stratosphere is largely because the mountains alter the pathway that all waves take as they propagate toward the stratosphere, through the influence the mountains have on circulation lower down in the atmosphere. We find similar anomalous wave propagation during sudden warming events in the model and observations.
https://atmos.washington.edu/~david/Whi ... itted2.pdf
Ivm deze post interessant http://www.33andrain.com/topic/868-tele ... ent=100841
The impact of mountains on stratospheric circulation is explored using the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model. The “Mongolian mountains” decrease the boreal winter stratospheric jet strength by ∼1/3 and increase the frequency of major sudden stratospheric warmings from 0.08 year−1 to the observed 0.60 year−1. These changes are twice the magnitude of the impacts of the Tibetan plateau and Himalayas. Consistent with the decrease in the zonal jet, there is enhanced Eliassen‐Palm flux convergence; this is predominantly from changes in wave propagation pathways through changes to the upper troposphere circulation, not from an increased amplitude of planetary waves reaching the stratosphere. The Mongolian mountains have the greater impact on upper tropospheric circulation due to their meridional location. The Rocky Mountains have no significant impact on the stratospheric jet. Changes in wave propagation in response to the Mongolian mountains are similar to those associated with major sudden stratospheric warming events in observations.
Plain Language Summary
The stratosphere is a layer of the atmosphere far from the Earth's surface (10–50 km above the surface), but changes in stratospheric circulation, particularly events known as sudden stratospheric warmings, affect the weather and climate at the surface. By flattening individual mountain regions in a climate model that extends from the Earth's surface far past the stratosphere, we study the effects of mountains on stratospheric circulation and the frequency of sudden stratospheric warming events. We find that the presence of the Mongolian mountains weakens the stratospheric jet by a third of its strength and creates 6 times more warming events as there would be without these mountains. The impact of the Mongolian mountains is about twice as large as the impact of the larger and more expansive Tibetan plateau and Himalaya. Mountains are a source of planetary‐scale atmospheric waves that propagate upward into the stratosphere; we find that the mountain effect on the stratosphere is largely because the mountains alter the pathway that all waves take as they propagate toward the stratosphere, through the influence the mountains have on circulation lower down in the atmosphere. We find similar anomalous wave propagation during sudden warming events in the model and observations.
https://atmos.washington.edu/~david/Whi ... itted2.pdf
Ivm deze post interessant http://www.33andrain.com/topic/868-tele ... ent=100841
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
Er komt een nieuwe wave tegen het einde van de maand. Zou wel eens sterker kunnen worden dan de eerste.
Het zwaartepunt van de polar vortex van de troposfeer komt boven Rusland te liggen.
Het zwaartepunt van de polar vortex van de troposfeer komt boven Rusland te liggen.
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
Aan het eind van de tiendaagse van het ECMWF is er zowel een wave1 als wave2 activiteit. De grootste verstoring zit op 50hpa.
De lange termijn outlook voor de stratosfeer geeft (weer) een stevig signaal van verzwakking van de poolwervel.
De lange termijn outlook voor de stratosfeer geeft (weer) een stevig signaal van verzwakking van de poolwervel.
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
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Sebastiaan
- Berichten: 12285
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/ ... 2102488064
Tweet van een van de betere Tweeteraars.
That behemoth that develops over Scandinavia with Saharan-like 500mb heights is the kind of thing that makes you realize why a lot of the other recent NAO attempts were lame. The background climate state is probably also giving it a kick. It's so powerful that in 5-8 days it will rip the polar vortex into 2 well up into the middle of the stratosphere. That's some block! It should be noted here for anyone not familiar: the stratosphere has been decoupled this whole cold season so far. It's not causing this block. This splitting vortex is the outcome of the tropospheric players and an indication that they mean business. The block is being caused by constructive interference. The existing mean wave train is going to see a wave packet inundation from the eastern US that will amplify that signal. This bubble is being forced through an altering waveguide.
Tweet van een van de betere Tweeteraars.
That behemoth that develops over Scandinavia with Saharan-like 500mb heights is the kind of thing that makes you realize why a lot of the other recent NAO attempts were lame. The background climate state is probably also giving it a kick. It's so powerful that in 5-8 days it will rip the polar vortex into 2 well up into the middle of the stratosphere. That's some block! It should be noted here for anyone not familiar: the stratosphere has been decoupled this whole cold season so far. It's not causing this block. This splitting vortex is the outcome of the tropospheric players and an indication that they mean business. The block is being caused by constructive interference. The existing mean wave train is going to see a wave packet inundation from the eastern US that will amplify that signal. This bubble is being forced through an altering waveguide.
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Sebastiaan
- Berichten: 12285
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/applica ... ?id=417503
Ik zie zowel EC als UKMO met goede kansen op een SSW in februari.
Ik zie zowel EC als UKMO met goede kansen op een SSW in februari.
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
Open ik deze bovenstaande link, dan krijg ik de volgende melding:Sebastiaan schreef: ↑18-11-2018 11:10https://www.netweather.tv/forum/applica ... ?id=417503
Ik zie zowel EC als UKMO met goede kansen op een SSW in februari.
Mocht er in februari weer een SSW voordoen, kunnen we dan volgend jaar weer een hete en een droge zomer verwachten?Sorry, there is a problem
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Error code: 2C171/1
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Sebastiaan
- Berichten: 12285
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer winter 2018/2019
https://www40.zippyshare.com/v/hGcR07uS/file.html
Kijk hier eens.
Nee, dat staat los van elkaar. SSW-effecten zijn na een week of 6-8 uit de atmosfeer.
Kijk hier eens.
Nee, dat staat los van elkaar. SSW-effecten zijn na een week of 6-8 uit de atmosfeer.