Van het Netweather forum
"No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI"
This August 2018 paper looks at the results from the 12 models involved in the 'Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative' and concludes:
No statistically significant changes in the frequency of occurrence of SSWs are to be expected in the coming decades and until the end of the 21st century. This result is robust, as it is obtained with three different identification criteria.
Other features of SSWs – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric precursor wave fluxes – do not change in the future either in the model simulations, in agreement with other studies, such as McLandress and Shepherd (2009) and Bell et al. (2010).
The absence of a future change in SSWs is a robust result across all models examined here, regardless of their biases or different representation of the QBO, coupling to the ocean, solar variability, etc.https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/11277/2018/acp-18-11277-2018.pdf
On the other hand, this July 2017 paper finds there will be an impact:
"More Frequent Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events due to Enhanced MJO Forcing Expected in a Warmer Climate."
Given that the MJO is predicted to be stronger in a warmer climate, these results suggest that SSW events may become more frequent, with possible implications on tropospheric high-latitude weather.https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/reprints/Kang-Tziperman-2017.pdf