Stratosfeer 2023/2024
Re: Stratosfeer 2023/2024
Een dergelijke actuele weersituatie met een straffe geoliede W-circulatie kan alleen in bepaalde gevallen totaal omslaan rond half januari.
Komt zelden voor maar het kan....
Zie januari(eind)/februari 1956
Ook 2012 gebeurde het....
Het kan zelfs (eind of half) februari nog....
Ik spreek hier deels uit ervaring zonder al die LT stromingen en kaarten te bekijken
Komt zelden voor maar het kan....
Zie januari(eind)/februari 1956
Ook 2012 gebeurde het....
Het kan zelfs (eind of half) februari nog....
Ik spreek hier deels uit ervaring zonder al die LT stromingen en kaarten te bekijken
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- Berichten: 12416
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer 2023/2024
EC12u ENS. Control aan boord? Lastig te zien.
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- Berichten: 12416
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer 2023/2024
Rond maandwisseling jan/feb
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- Berichten: 12416
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer 2023/2024
Split.
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- Berichten: 12416
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer 2023/2024
Control van gisteravond had een split SSW.
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- Berichten: 12416
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer 2023/2024
Kans groeit. 3 januari?
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Re: Stratosfeer 2023/2024
Nu 4-6 januari meeste kans op split SSW met Weather regime Atlantic Ridge naar Greenland Blocking.
Belangrijkste vortexdeel met de grootste kans dan boven Europa.
Belangrijkste vortexdeel met de grootste kans dan boven Europa.
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- Berichten: 12416
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer 2023/2024
Wie nog even wil terugkijken op de 2023 SSW.
Using the ERA5 reanalysis, sea surface temperature, sea ice observations, and the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, the evolution of the stratospheric extreme circulation in the winter of 2022/2023 is explored. The stratospheric polar vortex was disturbed three times in the 2022/23 winter, contrasted with only one disturbance during the other three recent winters with an SSW. Possible favorable conditions for the strong stratospheric disturbances and their effects on stratospheric ozone, water vapor distribution, and near-surface temperature were examined. Around 7 December 2022 when a short but strong pulse of planetary wavenumber 2 appeared from the troposphere to stratosphere, a weakened and elongated stratospheric polar vortex formed at 10 hPa. This pulse is related to the intensifying Ural ridge and the deepening East Asian trough. After the first stratospheric disturbance, a large fraction of cold anomalies occurred in the Eurasian continent. A lagged impact after these stratospheric disturbances was observed as strong cold anomalies formed in North America from 13 to 23 December. On 28 January 2023, a minor SSW event occurred due to a displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong pulse of eddy heat flux contributed alternately by planetary wavenumber 1 and 2 showed a large accumulative effect on the stratospheric disturbance. However, the downward impact of this second disturbance was weak, and cold surges were not noticeable after this minor SSW. The third stratospheric disturbance this winter is a major displace-type SSW that occurred on 16 February 2023, and the total eddy heat flux primarily contributed by planetary wavenumber 1 increased rapidly. Following the major SSW, the North American continent was covered by large patches of strong cold anomalies until the end of March. During the three disturbances, the residual circulation correspondingly strengthened. The water vapor and ozone in the middle and lower layers of the polar stratosphere showed positive anomaly disturbances, especially after the major SSW onset. The unprecedented frequent stratospheric disturbances in winter 2022/23 were accompanied by severe loss of Barents-Laptev Sea ice and anomalously cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (La Niña), which have been reported to be conducive to the enhancement of planetary waves 1 and 2 respectively. Further, two weeks before the major SSW, existing MJO developed into phases 4–6, also contributing to the occurrence of major SSW.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 9-bib-0023
Using the ERA5 reanalysis, sea surface temperature, sea ice observations, and the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, the evolution of the stratospheric extreme circulation in the winter of 2022/2023 is explored. The stratospheric polar vortex was disturbed three times in the 2022/23 winter, contrasted with only one disturbance during the other three recent winters with an SSW. Possible favorable conditions for the strong stratospheric disturbances and their effects on stratospheric ozone, water vapor distribution, and near-surface temperature were examined. Around 7 December 2022 when a short but strong pulse of planetary wavenumber 2 appeared from the troposphere to stratosphere, a weakened and elongated stratospheric polar vortex formed at 10 hPa. This pulse is related to the intensifying Ural ridge and the deepening East Asian trough. After the first stratospheric disturbance, a large fraction of cold anomalies occurred in the Eurasian continent. A lagged impact after these stratospheric disturbances was observed as strong cold anomalies formed in North America from 13 to 23 December. On 28 January 2023, a minor SSW event occurred due to a displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex. A strong pulse of eddy heat flux contributed alternately by planetary wavenumber 1 and 2 showed a large accumulative effect on the stratospheric disturbance. However, the downward impact of this second disturbance was weak, and cold surges were not noticeable after this minor SSW. The third stratospheric disturbance this winter is a major displace-type SSW that occurred on 16 February 2023, and the total eddy heat flux primarily contributed by planetary wavenumber 1 increased rapidly. Following the major SSW, the North American continent was covered by large patches of strong cold anomalies until the end of March. During the three disturbances, the residual circulation correspondingly strengthened. The water vapor and ozone in the middle and lower layers of the polar stratosphere showed positive anomaly disturbances, especially after the major SSW onset. The unprecedented frequent stratospheric disturbances in winter 2022/23 were accompanied by severe loss of Barents-Laptev Sea ice and anomalously cold tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (La Niña), which have been reported to be conducive to the enhancement of planetary waves 1 and 2 respectively. Further, two weeks before the major SSW, existing MJO developed into phases 4–6, also contributing to the occurrence of major SSW.
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com ... 9-bib-0023
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- Berichten: 12416
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977
Re: Stratosfeer 2023/2024
Verschil 192u en 384u. Je ziet dat de wind van de tegenovergestelde kant waait.
Je hebt niet voldoende permissies om de bijlagen van dit bericht te bekijken.
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- Berichten: 12416
- Lid geworden op: 31-12-1977